Pre-market futures are down this morning, following a very well-received bounce Wednesday after the latest ceasefire agreement with Iran. This ceasefire appears to be unravelling somewhat, however, so investors are back to hedging their bets. The Dow is -170 points at this hour, the S&P 500 is -17 and the Nasdaq -47 points. The small-cap Russell 2000 is -20 points currently.
Weekly Jobless Claims Notably Mixed
Initial Jobless Claims jumped to 219K last week, 9000 higher than the consensus estimate, which had been in-line with the previous several weeks. The prior week was revised upward, but still only to 203K — the lowest level since holiday shopping season added positive seasonality to the labor market.
Continuing Claims, on the other hand, dropped below 1.8 million for the first time in nearly two years: 1.794 million, down from the revised-lower previous week of 1.832 million. These figures are always posted a week in arrears from Initial Claims, but in general have provided a big downward shift since mid-February. We’ll see if this continues now that new claims are ticking up.
PCE Mostly In-Line with Expectations
Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), delayed and illustrating February conditions, were mostly in-line with consensus estimates this morning. Headline Personal Income reached +0.4%, up 10 basis points (bps) month over month and matching expectations. Personal Spending was -10 bps lower than projected to +0.5%, with a -10 bps reduction to the prior level to +0.3%. Personal Income was the lowest tally of the year so far: -0.1%. Real Spending was -10 bps lower than projections to +0.1%.
PCE year over year came in exactly as expected: +2.8%, also what we saw the previous month and in four of the last six months. Core PCE year over year dipped -10 bps to +3.0%, also as anticipated. While these figures depict rather muted inflation activity, keep in mind we’re still looking at February — practically an eon ago in terms of economic activity.
The second and final revision to Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) atypically dropped 20 bps to +0.5%, still the lowest since the negative print in Q1 of 2025, and bringing 2025 GDP growth overall to +2.2% — the worst year for economic growth since 2022. Consumption ticked down -10 bps to +1.9% on this revision, while Pricing stayed at +3.8%.
What to Expect from the Stock Market
After the opening bell, we’ll see new Wholesale Inventories for February. These are not expected to move the needle either — everything currently revolves around what’s happening in Iran, the Strait of Hormuz and the surrounding nations — but will give us more incremental signs of which way the economy had been heading. We look for an improvement of +30 bps, but still a negative print: -0.2%.
Tomorrow brings us Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers for March, which are expected to jump on headline and move slightly higher on core (oil prices having a lot to do with this, natch). Core CPI is projected to rise +20 bps to +2.7% for last month. Frankly, it’s hard to imagine a reason why consumer prices wouldn’t have risen, at least somewhat, in March.
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Jobless Claims Increased More Than Expected
Pre-market futures are down this morning, following a very well-received bounce Wednesday after the latest ceasefire agreement with Iran. This ceasefire appears to be unravelling somewhat, however, so investors are back to hedging their bets. The Dow is -170 points at this hour, the S&P 500 is -17 and the Nasdaq -47 points. The small-cap Russell 2000 is -20 points currently.
Weekly Jobless Claims Notably Mixed
Initial Jobless Claims jumped to 219K last week, 9000 higher than the consensus estimate, which had been in-line with the previous several weeks. The prior week was revised upward, but still only to 203K — the lowest level since holiday shopping season added positive seasonality to the labor market.
Continuing Claims, on the other hand, dropped below 1.8 million for the first time in nearly two years: 1.794 million, down from the revised-lower previous week of 1.832 million. These figures are always posted a week in arrears from Initial Claims, but in general have provided a big downward shift since mid-February. We’ll see if this continues now that new claims are ticking up.
PCE Mostly In-Line with Expectations
Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), delayed and illustrating February conditions, were mostly in-line with consensus estimates this morning. Headline Personal Income reached +0.4%, up 10 basis points (bps) month over month and matching expectations. Personal Spending was -10 bps lower than projected to +0.5%, with a -10 bps reduction to the prior level to +0.3%. Personal Income was the lowest tally of the year so far: -0.1%. Real Spending was -10 bps lower than projections to +0.1%.
PCE year over year came in exactly as expected: +2.8%, also what we saw the previous month and in four of the last six months. Core PCE year over year dipped -10 bps to +3.0%, also as anticipated. While these figures depict rather muted inflation activity, keep in mind we’re still looking at February — practically an eon ago in terms of economic activity.
The second and final revision to Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) atypically dropped 20 bps to +0.5%, still the lowest since the negative print in Q1 of 2025, and bringing 2025 GDP growth overall to +2.2% — the worst year for economic growth since 2022. Consumption ticked down -10 bps to +1.9% on this revision, while Pricing stayed at +3.8%.
What to Expect from the Stock Market
After the opening bell, we’ll see new Wholesale Inventories for February. These are not expected to move the needle either — everything currently revolves around what’s happening in Iran, the Strait of Hormuz and the surrounding nations — but will give us more incremental signs of which way the economy had been heading. We look for an improvement of +30 bps, but still a negative print: -0.2%.
Tomorrow brings us Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers for March, which are expected to jump on headline and move slightly higher on core (oil prices having a lot to do with this, natch). Core CPI is projected to rise +20 bps to +2.7% for last month. Frankly, it’s hard to imagine a reason why consumer prices wouldn’t have risen, at least somewhat, in March.